After district visit, Roll Call says race could go either way
With fourteen months to go until election day 2010, another national publication involved in political handicapping is already deeming New York’s 19th Congressional District (NY-19) one of the most competitive races to watch in 2010.
Roll Call, whose masthead refers to it as the “Newspaper of Capitol Hill Since 1955,” joins Congressional Quarterly in ranking NY-19 as “leans democratic,” now that State Assemblyman Greg Ball (R-Patterson) is mounting a highly viable, aggressive challenge to sophomore lawmaker John Hall (D-Dover), who represents the traditionally Republican-leaning Hudson Valley seat.
Michael Edelman, a veteran Republican political consultant based in Westchester County New York, says Roll Call’s change in assessing the race “is a clear indication that the incumbent Democrat is vulnerable to a challenge by popular Assemblyman Greg Ball. Roll Call recognizes that in marginal districts like the 19th, there is a very good likelihood that the right Republican can win in November particularly in light of the precipitous fall in the President’s approval ratings due to the outrage over his health care plan, the failure of his stimulus package and his international apology tour.”
According to Congressional Quarterly, “One point that needs to be clearly understood is that the contests rated ‘leans’ are very competitive and could go either way. So it behooves those with partisan rooting interests to pay close attention and make no presumptions about the outcomes of those contests.”